Key Players
UK Conservative Government
- Boris Johnson
- Position: Prime Minister; Leader of the Conservative Party
- Influence level:
- High.
- 288 seats in the House of Commons.
- Johnson has been able to wrest the agenda from the British Parliament, Dictating the current round of Brexit negotiations while beset on all sides.
- Despite vowing to deliver Brexit on October 31st ‘do or die,’ his request for a January 31st Brexit extension was recently approved by EU leaders.
- Intel:
- Johnson has used the Brexit issue to catapult himself to the seat of UK power.
- The befuddled former mayor of London became the face of the ‘Leave’ campaign during the 2016 Brexit referendum.
- He served as Foreign Secretary under Theresa May only to resign in July 2018 in opposition to her proposed deal.
- He succeeded Theresa May as Prime Minister and has slogged through the Brexit quagmire since July 2019.
- Motivation:
- Johnson campaigned hard for the ‘Leave’ campaign during the 2016 Brexit referendum.
- His tenure in government has proven that he is a staunch supporter of a “hard Brexit” but will support a “no-deal Brexit” if the situation becomes unavoidable.
- An illegal prorogation of Parliament revealed Johnson’s commitment to the October 31st deadline.
- David Frost
- Position: Appointed Head UK Negotiator by July 24, 2019
- Influence level:
- Medium.
- While Frost is tasked with negotiating the UK’s position, he is not as involved with decision-making as Johnson and Dominic Cummings.
- Intel:
- A career diplomat with extensive European experience, Frost is expected to breathe new life into the Brexit negotiations.
- His tenure as the former British ambassador to Denmark is expected to soften Johnson’s rhetoric.
- Motivation:
- Frost has spent a career in civil service and appears contented with filling various roles.
- While Frost is committed to an October 31 Brexit – deal or no deal – his negotiating efforts bore fruit in the recently accepted withdrawal agreement.
- Stephen Barclay
- Position: Brexit Secretary
- Influence Level:
- Medium.
- As Brexit secretary, Barclay is at the center of the negotiations.
- His financial industry experience may provide insight into Brexit’s impacts on London’s prized financial sector.
- Intel:
- As one of the few holdovers from Theresa May’s government, Barclay’s experience in Brexit has proven a key component of Johnson’s team.
- He was promoted from Home Secretary to Brexit secretary in November 2018, following Dominic Raab’s resignation.
- Motivation:
- Barclay’s experience in government and the financial sector makes him a decisive connection in these high-level talks.
- His unwillingness to rule out a leadership bid and 9-year political trajectory suggests he may have his eyes set on leadership in the future.
- Sajid Javid
- Position: Chancellor of the Exchequer
- Influence level:
- Medium.
- A reformed ‘Remainer’ and long-time Tory with experience across the parliamentary board, Javid wields influence across the different tribes in the Conservative party.
- Prime Minister Boris Johnson tapped him to lead the UK economy through Brexit.
- Intel:
- Former Home Secretary under Theresa May and now Chancellor of the Exchequer, Javid is the “first person from an ethnic minority” to hold either title.
- He has enjoyed a formidable ascent since resigning as a managing director at Deutsche Bank AG to join Parliament in 2010.
- Motivation:
- Javid is an avowed Thatcherite who has already run for Conservative leadership once already; he has his sights set on No. 10 Downing street.
- The leadership contest following Theresa May’s ouster immediately saw Javid throw his hat in the ring – an early signal he will likely attempt another leadership run once Boris steps down.
- Dominic Raab
- Position: Foreign Secretary
- Influence level:
- Medium.
- While the UK’s most significant Foreign Affairs issue, Brexit, is on the PM’s desk, Raab has played an instrumental role in the UK’s Brexit negotiations.
- Intel:
- In 2018, Raab became the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union – commonly known as the Brexit Secretary – after David Davis’ resignation. He would later resign from his post on November 2018 in protest of Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
- Following Theresa May’s ouster, Raab ran for the Conservative leadership before losing to Boris Johnson.
- He would later be appointed as Foreign Secretary in Johnson’s government, where he has continued to spearhead negotiations despite public accusations to the contrary.
- Motivation:
- Raab has pushed for a hard Brexit and has signalled support for a no-deal divorce if the situation should arise.
- From the start of his time in government, he has been a hardline ‘Leaver’ and has pushed for a tougher stance on the EU. He has advocated that Britain’s position following Brexit will be much stronger, with the potential for globe-spanning trade deals unencumbered by the EU.
- His previous leadership run suggests his long-term ambition rests with the top job following Boris Johnson’s departure.
- Priti Patel
- Position: Home Secretary
- Influence level:
- Low.
- Pouncing on the Brexit referendum, she campaigned heavily for the ‘Leave’ vote and quickly became a leading voice within the Tory leadership.
- In 2016, she was appointed International Development Secretary under Theresa May before being relegated to the backbenches in 2017 amid a damaging scandal.
- After Johnson’s 2019 leadership victory, she was appointed the Home Secretary, considerably influencing the government’s post-Brexit strategy.
- Intel:
- Another avowed Thatcherite, Patel has long been a Eurosceptic and railed against the EU’s free movement of people within Britain.
- She recently backtracked on her promise to end EU free movement after it was determined that the government could be exposed to a legal challenge but seems determined to pursue the issue.
- Her strategy is to develop an Australian-style points-based immigration system that would filter through only the most skilled and talented immigrants.
- Motivation:
- While Patel has never shown explicit interest in government leadership, she has gained considerable momentum and will likely make a leadership push in the future.
- Despite her fall from grace, Patel is now the highest-ranking woman in government, and her recovery has since christened her the “Lazarus of Politics.”
- Increasing domestic security through limiting UK immigration seems to be her main focus.
- Dominic Cummings
- Position: Political Aide to Boris Johnson
- Influence level:
- Intel:
- Adviser to former Education Minister Michael Gove, Cummings moved on to direct the ‘Vote Leave’ campaign during the 2016 Brexit referendum. In his role, he reconfigured the campaign’s message and strategy to secure victory; he was the mastermind behind the “Take back control” slogan.
- After several refusals to answer lawmakers’ questions regarding false claims during the Brexit campaign, he was eventually found in contempt of Parliament and admonished in 2019.
- However, upon taking office, Johnson appointed Cummings as his “de facto chief of staff”, where he has been the lead strategist behind Johnson’s campaign and Brexit strategy.
- Reports indicate that he will step down from his position for a medical procedure and will likely not return.
- Motivation:
- Cummings has been an ardent supporter of civil service reform for quite some time, and he sees an opportunity to the effect that change in the coming months.
- Cummings has ideological and pragmatic reasons for the changes, but he views his time in government with Johnson as his best opportunity to carry out the necessary reforms.
- More importantly, he believes in a hard Brexit, has pushed for a no-deal divorce, and has chiefly crafted Johnson’s Brexit strategy.
European Research Group
- Jacob Rees-Mogg
- Position: Leader of the House of Commons, Lord President of the Council, and Former Chairman of the European Research Group (ERG)
- Influence level:
- Medium.
- Under Rees-Mogg’s leadership, The ERG – a hardline Brexiteer tribe within the Conservative Party – were able to undermine Theresa May’s Chequers Plan.
- Intel:
- Brexit has catapulted Rees-Mogg and his Eurosceptic views from the fringes (and the backbenches) to the center of the debate.
- Rees-Mogg and the ERG were instrumental in the defeat of May’s Chequers Plan.
- In July 2019, his loyalty to Boris Johnson was rewarded with the appointment to the Leader of the Commons.
- As Chairman of the ERG, he was at the head of a hardline group of MPs and given considerable sway over the Brexit debate.
- Motivation:
- He supports a hard Brexit, welcomes a no-deal scenario, and believes the UK would perform well under World Trade Organization rules.
- His biggest grievance was the Irish Backstop, which could indefinitely retain the UK in the EU customs union.
- Steve Baker
- Position: Conservative MP and current ERG Chairman
- Influence Level:
- Low.
- 92 ERG members.
- Though Steve Baker is the current ERG Chairman, Rees-Mogg is still regarded as the de facto leader in some circles due to the alignment of the government and the ERG’s policies.
- Intel:
- Baker was the ERG chairman during the 2016-2017 period and deputy chairman in 2018-2019.
- He maintains a close relationship with Rees-Mogg, who signals many of the group’s intentions over the medium term.
- Motivation:
- Baker supports a hard Brexit and campaigned for the ‘Leave’ vote during the referendum.
- The former Deputy Brexit Secretary has slipped back and forth between the government and the ERG.
- His time amongst the country’s leadership suggests he may continue onto a significant cabinet position in future.
- ERG Member List
- Lucy Allan
- David Amess
- Richard Bacon
- Steve Baker
- Bob Blackman
- Crispin Blunt
- Peter Bone
- Ben Bradley
- Graham Brady
- Suella Braverman
- Andrew Bridgen
- Fiona Bruce
- Conor Burns
- Bill Cash
- Rehman Chishti
- Simon Clarke
- Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
- Robert Courts
- Tracey Crouch
- David Davies
- Philip Davies
- David Davis
- Nigel Dodds
- Nadine Dorries
- Steve Double
- Richard Drax
- James Duddridge
- Iain Duncan Smith
- Charlie Elphicke
- Nigel Evans
- Michael Fabricant
- Mark Francois
- Marcus Fysh
- Cheryl Gillan
- Zac Goldsmith
- James Gray
- Chris Green
- Mark Harper
- Trudy Harrison
- Adam Holloway
- Eddie Hughes
- Ranil Jayawardena
- Bernard Jenkin
- Andrea Jenkyns
- Boris Johnson
- Caroline Johnson
- Gareth Johnson
- David Jones
- Daniel Kawzcynski
- Pauline Latham
- Edward Leigh
- Andrew Lewer
- Julian Lewis
- Julia Lopez
- Jonathan Lord
- Tim Loughton
- Craig Mackinlay
- Anne Main
- Scott Mann
- Stephen McPartland
- Esther McVey
- Nigel Mills
- Damien Moore
- Anne-Marie Morris
- Sheryll Murray
- Matthew Offord
- Priti Patel
- Owen Paterson
- Tom Pursglove
- Will Quince
- Dominic Raab
- John Redwood
- Jacob Rees-Mogg
- Laurence Robertson
- Andrew Rosindell
- Lee Rowley
- Henry Smith
- Royston Smith
- Bob Stewart
- Desmond Swayne
- Derek Thomas
- Ross Thomson
- Michael Tomlinson
- Craig Tracey
- Anne-Marie Trevelyan
- Shailesh Vara
- Martin Vickers
- Theresa Villiers
- John Whttingdale
- Bill Wiggin
- Sammy Wilson
- William Wragg
Brexit Delivery Group
- Simon Hart
- Position: Leader of the Brexit Delivery Group (BDG)
- Influence level:
- Low
- 51 BDG Members
- Though Hart helms the BDG, the group’s informal status lends him little authority over its members.
- At last count, the Brexit Delivery Group was the third largest of the Conservative party’s internal tribes.
- They were primarily supporters of Theresa May’s Chequers plan and sought to avoid a no-deal Brexit at any cost.
- Intel:
- Hart’s pragmatism allowed him to coordinate a group of like-minded MPs to support Theresa May’s deal.
- He was promoted to Minister of Implementation upon Boris Johnson’s leadership victory.
- Motivation:
- Hart and the BDG want a deal of any sort.
- Having voted to remain in the 2016 referendum, Hart is opposed to a no-deal Brexit and supported Theresa May during her stint in government.
- Brexit Delivery Group Members
- Peter Aldous
- Henry Bellingham
- Richard Benyon
- Nick Boles
- Rehman Chishti
- Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
- Stephen Crabb
- Chris Davies
- David Davies
- Jonathan Djanogly
- Steve Double
- David Duguid
- Philip Dunne
- George Freeman
- Roger Gale
- Mark Garnier
- Robert Goodwill
- Richard Graham
- Bill Grant
- Damian Green
- Simon Hart
- Oliver Heald
- Gordon Henderson
- Joh Howell
- Stephen Kerr
- Jeremy Lefroy
- Jonathan Lord
- Scott Mann
- Patrick McLoughlin
- Mark Menzies
- Maria Miller
- Nicky Morgan
- Bob Neill
- Neil Parish
- Mark Pawsey
- Andrew Percy
- Daniel Poulter
- Antoinette Sandbach
- Bob Seely
- Andrew Selous
- Keith Simpson
- Nicholas Soames
- John Stevenson
- Gary Streeter
- Julian Sturdy
- Hugo Swire
- David Tredinnick
- Tom Tugendhat
- Ed Vaizey
- Charles Walker
- Giles Watling
Brexit Party
- Nigel Farage
- Position: Leader of the Brexit party
- Former head of the UK Independence Party (UKIP)
- Member of the European Parliament since 1999
- Influence Level:
- Medium
- 28 Members of the European Parliament
- A former fringe politician, Farage has long been the voice of UK Eurosceptics.
- His EU-bashing garnered enough support to trigger the Brexit referendum by then-Prime Minister David Cameron.
- Intel:
- Farage founded the Brexit party in November 2018 after breaking ties with UKIP.
- The most recent European Parliament elections saw him bolster his position with a plurality of the British vote.
- Farage and his Brexit party pose a significant threat to the Tories in the event of an election.
- Like the 2016 referendum, Farage may peel away dissatisfied conservative voters.
- Farage has demanded that Johnson renegotiate the newly-signed deal and sign an electoral pact with his party for the upcoming election.
- Though he has stood down from his threat to contest all Tory seats in the coming election, he remains a dark horse to Johnson’s Brexit plans.
- Motivation:
- For years, Farage has supported the UK’s exit from the EU.
- Initially speaking from the fringes of government, the 2016 referendum propelled him to the center of the debate.
- He has consistently sought a hard Brexit through populist ideas – causing a split with the Tories, who viewed him as an extremist.
- Position: Leader of the Brexit party
Democratic Unionist Party
- Arlene Foster
- Position: DUP Leader
- Influence level:
- Low.
- As the leader of the 10 DUP MPs, Foster became an accidental “kingmaker” once the Tories lost their parliamentary majority.
- However, Johnson’s new agreement dumped the DUP to secure an agreement with the EU.
- Despite vocal opposition to the deal, Foster and the DUP have been marginalized in the Brexit debate.
- Intel:
- Foster played a central role in propping up May’s government – giving her a slight majority in parliament.
- Her voice carries less weight now that Northern Ireland’s veto – and implicit consent – is no longer a part of the deal.
- Motivation:
- Despite softening her stance on the prospect of border controls, Foster still adamantly opposes the introduction of a hard border in Ireland.
- The new deal has pushed her to break ties with the government as she vocally opposes the new agreement.
- A Eurosceptic, she campaigned for the ‘Leave’ campaign and was most interested in securing a border-free Ireland.
- DUP Members
- Gregory Campbell
- Nigel Dodds
- Sir Jeffrey M. Donaldson
- Paul Girvan
- Emma Little Pengelly
- Ian PaisleyGavin Robinson
- Jim Shannon
- David Simpson
- Sammy Wilson
- Theresa May
- Position: Former UK Prime Minister
- Influence Level:
- Low.
- Though Theresa May is no longer in office, the shadow of her rejected deal looms large over parliament.
- The backstop has proven the most contentious aspect of the Brexit negotiations and remains as her lasting legacy.
- Intel:
- Theresa May succeeded David Cameron as PM after he unsuccessfully campaigned for ‘Remain’ in the Brexit referendum.
- Her attempts to pass a Brexit deal in parliament earned historic defeats before her eventual resignation in July 2019.
- Despite her exit from the UK’s government cabinet, she still features prominently in the Brexit debates and will likely have a role to play before the deal is done.
- Motivation:
- Theresa May voted to remain in the referendum and, absent a reversal of the referendum, prefers a soft Brexit.
- Her attempts at a deal were emblematic of her desire to keep the Conservative party in power while safely steering the Brexit process.
- Despite locking horns with Johnson over the viability of her deal, she recently spoke in support of Johnson’s agreement; urging MPs to back the deal.
Conservative Opposition
- Philip Hammond
- Position: Former Chancellor of the Exchequer and Tory Grandee
- Influence level:
- Low.
- Despite playing a coordinating role amongst the 21 Tory rebels who lost the whip, Hammond possesses little power in the Commons.
- He is a Tory grandee who has previously been the defence, foreign, and transport secretary.
- Intel:
- After rebelling against the Johnson government to stave off a no-deal Brexit, Hammond was among the rebels from whom Johnson removed the whip.
- Since his expulsion from the Conservative party, Hammond has discussed forming a new party from the rebels who had the whip removed.
- However, Johnson recently restored the whip to 10 rebel MPs – effectively splitting them from the other 11.
- Hammond was among the 11 left out in the cold.
- Motivation:
- Hammond initially backed ‘Remain’ in the referendum and prefers a soft Brexit if one is required.
- Above all, Hammond and the rebels want to avoid what they view to be a disastrous exit from the EU.
- A no-deal scenario, Hammond reckons, would be catastrophic for the UK; driving him to support the January 31 deadline extension.
- 21 Tory Rebels
- Guto Bebb
- Richard Benyon
- Steve Brine
- Alistair Burt
- Greg Clark
- Kenneth Clarke
- David Gauke
- Justine Greening
- Dominic Grieve
- Sam Gyimah
- Philip Hammond
- Stephen Hammond
- Richard Harrington
- Margot James
- Oliver Letwin
- Anne Milton
- Caroline Nokes
- Antoinette Sandbach
- Nicholas Soames
- Rory Stewart
- Edward Vaizey
Labour-Led Opposition
- Jeremy Corbyn
- Position: Labour Party Leader and Leader of the Opposition in the House of Commons
- Influence level:
- High.
- 245 seats in the House of Commons.
- As Leader of the Labour party and Leader of the Opposition since 2015, Corbyn has used unbending neutrality throughout the Brexit debate to affect his influence.
- Intel:
- Previously relegated to the fringes of his party for his socialist views, Corbyn won the 2015 Labour leadership run before the Brexit referendum.
- His Labour party won big in the 2017 snap election when Theresa May, seeking more significant support for her coming deal, lost her parliamentary majority.
- To knock down Boris Johnson’s proposed Brexit plan, opposition leaders debated a vote of confidence to install an interim unity government.
- Corbyn’s insistence on leading said government ended the potential alliance in its crib.
- Motivation:
- Corbyn’s primary motivation is a Labour government negotiating Brexit with the EU.
- Though Labour largely supported ‘Remain’, Corbyn has long been a Eurosceptic.
- He opposes a no-deal Brexit and may support a second referendum.
- Tom Watson
- Position: Labour Party Deputy Leader
- Influence level:
- Low.
- Wielding a fair amount of influence in his party, Watson may succeed Corbyn if he were to step down.
- Intel:
- Deputy Leader since 2015, he has often been at odds with leader Jeremy Corbyn.
- Most recently, Watson was the subject of Labour party infighting and was nearly ousted at the Labour annual conference.
- Motivation:
- The Deputy Leader makes no secret of his Labour party leadership ambitions.
- To distinguish himself from Corbyn, Watson made early calls for a second referendum, emphatically backing a ‘Remain’ vote.
- Emily Thornberry
- Position: Shadow Foreign Secretary
- Influence level:
- Low.
- Thornberry has helped steer Labour’s position but has little involvement in policymaking.
- Intel:
- Her pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to commit Labour to a ‘Remain’ referendum and public appearances have made her a target of Conservatives and Brexit supporters.
- Motivation:
- Thornberry ardently supports remaining within the EU and a second referendum.
- Diane Abbott
- Position: Shadow Home Secretary
- Influence level:
- Low.
- Abbott’s influence within Labour rises as her close connection to Corbyn becomes more evident.
- Intel:
- Abbot’s close ties to Corbyn have pushed her closer to the spotlight on the Brexit debate – helping to influence public opinion.
- Motivation:
- Abbott maintains that Labour should negotiate the Brexit deal and put it to a second referendum in which Labour would support ‘Remain’.
- Critics have noted this would cause a conflict of interest and cast doubt on Labour’s intentions in EU negotiations.
Scottish National Party (SNP)
- Nicola Sturgeon
- Position: Leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP).
- Influence level:
- Medium.
- 35 seats in the House of Commons. Nicola Sturgeon is the First Minister of Scotland and the leader of the SNP – the UK’s 3rd largest political party.
- While SNP votes may not define the Brexit outcome, Sturgeon could trigger a Scottish independence vote.
- Intel:
- Scotland overwhelmingly voted ‘Remain’ during the Brexit referendum.
- The results rekindled Scottish independence movements that thrust Sturgeon to the front of the Brexit debate.
- Motivation:
- Sturgeon has made no secret that she and Scotland prefer to remain in the EU.
- She backs a second referendum to determine the country’s fate but will likely aim to spark a vote on Scottish independence once the dust settles to avoid similar crises in the future.
- SNP Members
- Hannah Bardell
- Mhairi Black
- Ian Blackford
- Kirsty Blackman
- Deidre Brock
- Alan Brown
- Dr Lisa Cameron
- Douglas Chapman
- Joanna Cherry
- Ronnie Cowan
- Angela Crawley
- Martin Docherty-Hughes
- Marion Fellows
- Stephen Gethins
- Patricia Gibson
- Patrick Grady
- Peter Grant
- Neil Gray
- Drew Hendry
- Stewart Hosie
- Chris Law
- David Linden
- Stewart Malcolm Macdonald
- Stuart C. McDonald
- John McNally
- Carol Monaghan
- Gavin Newlands
- Brendan O’Hara
- Tommy Sheppard
- Chris Stephens
- Alison Thewliss
- Dr Philippa Whitford
- Pete Wishart
Liberal Democrats (Lib-Dems)
- Jo Swinson
- Position: Leader of the Liberal Democrat (Lib Dems) Party
- Influence Level:
- Intel:
- The Lib Dems have seen an uptick in their numbers as some recently-ejected Conservative rebels cross the floor to join their ranks.
- Swinson’s pro-Remain stance has earned her growing support, and the party’s stature is quickly becoming a tempting option for those dissatisfied with the main parties.
- Motivation:
- Swinson and the Lib Dems fiercely support remaining in the EU and would cancel Brexit if elected.
- Lib-Dem Members
- Heidi Allen
- Tom Brake
- Alistair Carmichael
- Jane Dodds
- Sam Gyimah
- Christine Jardine
- Dr Phillip Lee
- Angela Smith
- Jo Swinson
- Dr Sarah Wollaston
- Luciana Berger
- Sir Vince Cable
- Sir Edward Davey
- Tim Farron
- Wera Hobhouse
- Norman Lamb
- Layla Moran
- Jamie Stone
- Chuka Umunna
Plaid Cymru
- Adam Price
- Position: Plaid Cymru Leader
- Influence Level:
- Low.
- 4 seats in Parliament Plaid Cymru’s small footprint has little impact on the Brexit debate.
- Intel:
- Price expects that a no-deal Brexit could “hasten” efforts toward Welsh independence.
- His desire to remain in the EU has pushed him into an alliance with the SNP for alternative solutions to the Brexit deadlock.
- Previous comments have welcomed the breakup of the UK to allow for nuanced policy-making amongst its constituent countries.
- Motivation:
- He supports remaining in the EU and a second referendum to settle the Brexit debate. While he has openly discussed the potential for Welsh independence, he also promotes greater Celtic unity.
- Plaid Cymru Members
- Jonathan Edwards
- Ben lake
- Saville Roberts
- Hywel Williams
EU Leadership
- Leo Varadkar
- Position: Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister)
- Influence level:
- Medium.
- Ireland’s youngest Prime Minister assumed office in 2017 and leads the Fine Gael party’s 55-seat coalition government.
- Intel:
- Motivation:
- Michel Barnier
- Position: European Commission Chief Brexit Negotiator
- Influence level:
- Medium.
- A seasoned EU bureaucrat, Barnier has deftly represented the interests of all 27 EU member states while containing the Brexit threat.
- His negotiation of the Irish backstop has proved an effective roadblock to supporters of a hard Brexit.
- Intel:
- Barnier has been asked to remain as the EU Chief Brexit negotiator by incoming EC President Ursula von der Leyen.
- Motivation:
- While Barnier declined to run for EC President, he will likely use the Brexit negotiations to springboard into a central EC role.
- Didier Seeuws
- Position: Head of the EU Brexit Task Force
- Influence level:
- Low.
- While Seeuws is involved with the negotiations, his capacity is more of an adviser than a policymaker.
- Intel:
- Seeuws was handpicked by European Council President Donald Tusk to head the Brexit taskforce.
- The former adviser to Guy Verhofstadt, Seeuws, was selected due to his performance during the Greek debt crisis.
- Motivation:
- While keeping to the background of Brexit, Seeuws seeks to strike consensus amongst the 27 member states and ensure they are informed, represented and contented with the negotiations.
- Guy Verhofstadt
- Position: Former Belgian Prime Minister and European Parliament’s Brexit Co-ordinator
- Influence level:
- Low.
- Verhofstadt has no formal role in the negotiations though he represents the European Parliament.
- As the Parliament must approve any deal hashed out, his involvement is still critical.
- Intel:
- Brexit saw Verhofstadt elevated from his 10-year stint as a Member of the European Parliament to his current position as chief Brexit coordinator.
- Motivation:
- Verhofstadt publicly backed the ‘Remain’ campaign and is a staunch federalist seeking greater European integration.
- He will likely seek a senior role within the European Parliament once Brexit negotiations conclude.
- Jean-Claude Juncker
- Position: Outgoing President of the European Commission and former Prime Minister of Luxembourg
- Influence level:
- High.
- As the President of the European Union’s Executive Branch, Juncker represents the EU on foreign matters while helping to set the EC’s direction.
- Intel:
- Juncker has closely managed the Brexit negotiations with his chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.
- The duo has maintained EU solidarity despite doubting that a workable deal can be struck with the Johnson government.
- Motivation:
- Juncker considers Brexit a ‘disaster’ and would prefer reversing the 2016 referendum.
- However, instead of a ‘Remain’ outcome, he seeks to maintain the integrity of the EU customs union.
- An issue which, in this case, refers to the Irish backstop negotiated with Theresa May.
- Donald Tusk
- Position: Former Prime Minister of Poland and Current President of the EU Council
- Influence level:
- High.
- As President of the EU Council, Tusk is involved with developing the EU’s political direction along with the EU heads of state.
- Along with Jean-Claude Juncker, he is one of the EU’s senior leaders tasked with representing the union on the world stage.
- Intel:
- Brexit required Tusk to strike a conciliatory tone between the remaining members of the EU and the UK’s duelling political parties.
- The divorce has required brinksmanship from the typically quiet and charismatic leader.
- Motivation:
- Tusk lamented the 2016 results publicly and said he hopes it will be reversed in a second referendum.
- He prefers a cancellation to Brexit but, like Juncker, is committed to guarding the integrity of the customs union and maintaining a borderless Ireland.
- Angela Merkel
- Position: Chancellor of Germany
- Influence level:
- High.
- Merkel has no official role in the negotiations, but her position as the head of the EU’s largest economy makes her input invaluable.
- Intel:
- Despite the EU Brexit Taskforce’s deep bench of negotiators and diplomats, the process was always likely to draw in Merkel.
- She has often been the point person in the negotiations and traded barbs with both UK prime ministers.
- Motivation:
- The pragmatic German stateswoman has held a tough line against the UK as she protects EU interests.
- Her pro-European stance may put her under threat as domestic populism has cornered Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party.
- Emmanuel Macron
- Position: President of France
- Influence level:
- High.
- Macron is not formally involved in the Brexit negotiations, but his input and influence will likely impact any proposed deal.
- If Macron seeks political leverage, he may veto an extension request to end the saga.
- Intel:
- Brexit has pushed Macron into his bout of brinksmanship as he attempts to squeeze the UK government without holding the bag on collapsed talks.
- Motivation:
- As one of the de facto leaders of the EU, it is in Macron’s best interest to protect the EU position during the Brexit negotiation.
